What is Optomitron?

Optomitron identifies which policies, budgets, and interventions actually minimize suffering, eradicate preventable disease, and extend healthy lives — using time series data and causal inference across 20+ countries.

Governments allocate trillions every year, but rarely know what works. We apply causal analysis to real-world policy outcomes — comparing jurisdictions, tracking natural experiments, and scoring interventions by their actual impact on human welfare.

At its core, Optomitron provides a universal causal inference engine that takes any two time series and answers: Does changing X cause Y to change? By how much? What's the optimal value of X?

The Problem

💀

Preventable deaths

Millions die every year from diseases and conditions we know how to prevent or treat. Resources aren't allocated to what works — they're allocated to what's politically convenient.

🏛️

Policy by anecdote

Governments allocate trillions based on ideology and negotiation, not evidence of what actually improves outcomes. Nobody systematically measures what works.

🔇

No feedback loop

When a policy works in one jurisdiction, there's no systematic way to identify it and replicate it elsewhere. Successes go unnoticed; failures get repeated.

Architecture

COLLECT

  • Health data
  • Preferences
  • Outcomes
  • Spending
  • Policies

INFER

  • Temporal alignment
  • Bradford Hill
  • Effect sizes
  • PIS scoring

RECOMMEND

  • Policy rankings
  • Budget levels
  • Preference weights
  • Optimal values
1
Collect
Import time series data from any source
2
Align
Pair predictors and outcomes with onset delays
3
Score
Apply 9 Bradford Hill causation criteria
4
Optimize
Find optimal predictor values with CIs
5
Recommend
Generate actionable, graded recommendations

📄 Papers

Every algorithm in this codebase is defined in a published paper with exact formulas, worked examples, and parameter justifications.

📦 Packages

PackageDescriptionStatus
@optomitron/optimizerDomain-agnostic causal inference engine🟡 Alpha
@optomitron/wishocracyRAPPA preference aggregation🟡 Alpha
@optomitron/opgOptimal Policy Generator🟡 Alpha
@optomitron/obgOptimal Budget Generator🟡 Alpha
@optomitron/dataData fetchers & loaders (OECD, World Bank, etc.)🟡 Alpha
@optomitron/webThis website🟢 Active
@optomitron/extensionChrome extension for personal health⚪ Planned
@optomitron/chat-uiConversational chat UI⚪ Planned
🔮

Coming Soon

Decentralized health data collection. Individuals contribute anonymized health outcomes to build the dataset from the ground up — accelerating disease eradication and suffering reduction. Your data stays on your device; the causal engine runs locally in your browser.

Star on GitHub
github.com/mikepsinn/optomitron

MIT License © Mike P. Sinn