15 Things Everyone Believes That Data Contradicts

14 of 15 popular policy beliefs are contradicted by empirical data. Only 1 grades A.

Grade F (data contradicts)

Grade A (data supports)

Total analyzed

Methodology

Year-over-year percentage change correlations eliminate spurious trends. Causal direction scoring via forward/reverse Predictive Pearson identifies reactive vs. causal spending. Data from FRED, BLS, IRS, OMB, FBI UCR, CDC, WHO, OECD, World Bank (1950–2023).

Top pattern: Confusing correlation with causation from monotonic trends. Second: Reversed causation — spending is reactive, not causal.

15 Things Everyone Believes That Data Contradicts

The War on Drugs reduces drug deaths

Tough-on-crime drug policy reduces violent crime

Immigration enforcement protects wages

Tariffs protect the economy

Minimum wage increases cause unemployment

Lower tax rates increase tax revenue

More healthcare spending means better outcomes

More police spending prevents crime

Mass incarceration reduces crime

Gun ownership directly predicts homicide rates

The death penalty deters murder

Foreign aid reduces conflict

Abstinence education reduces teen pregnancy

Regulation kills economic growth

Climate spending hurts the economy

Methodology